The effects of a shifting climate on invasion biology

            In my Ecology and Management of Invasives class, we read a paper talking and the effects of climate change on invasive species.  The point of the paper was to discuss the different effects of climate change and how each of them would impact invasive species.  Of the temperature increases, increased CO₂ concentration, increased Nitrogen deposition, habitat fragmentation and disruption, only CO₂ concentrations had any sort of negative correlation with the growth of invasive species ranges.

            An interesting point that was brought up, however, was that as climates begin to shift, it will be difficult to differentiate species that are simply following their preferred ecological habitats versus invasive species that are expanding without any natural enemies.  As temperatures and other important ecological factors continue to change, it will be necessary to consider each case individually.  While some species may be harmful to their new habitats, they may not be non-native if they are simply shifting their home range to new areas that are more conducive to their needs than some of the areas that they currently inhabit.

            As we try to manage and inhibit the growth of invasive species, it is important that we don’t interrupt the natural movement of populations that are reacting to changing climates.  While our goal in most ecosystem management is to promote biodiversity, there is a thin line between allowing new species to establish themselves and letting invasive species get footholds in new habitats.  I personally don't know where that line should be drawn, but it is something that deserves some consideration.

            The paper ended with suggestions as to where we should focus our studies next; questions about the impact of climate change on specific nonnative species as well as generic invasion biology would be the next area to focus studies.  If we are able to predict where the ranges of specific ecosystems are going to shift to, it will be much easier to predict where invading populations will move as well.  This seems like something that could even be looked into with the Dinamica software we have been working with.